World in View: 2023 in Review, 2024 Ahead
BOSTON, MASS - 2023 has ended, and humanity enters a new year in 2024, and while it is not a clean slate entirely, there are opportunities to usher in change and reflect on the errant nature of the past year, and everything that has unfolded then. Inflation has begun to curb, Hamas attacked Israel, Musk acquired Twitter, Argentina elected a new president, the Russia-Ukraine war continued in its long, brutal nature, and the effects of climate change continue to make themselves evident, to name a few. In 2024 the world and democracy will be pressed by some of the most poignant issues that exist, and the ones from last year are only going to continue. That said, it is important to recap and analyze the events of last year, and attempt to get some sort of sense of the coming year, and perhaps, a vision.
Israel
Israel - Netanyahu and Gaza
Israel has received significant threats to its democracy in 2023, the first of these threats being from its very own president, Benjamin Netanyahu, who attempted a judicial overhaul of the country. This decision caused many Israeli citizens in major cities of Jerusalem and Tel Aviv to regularly take to the streets in peaceful protest. This threat has not at all gone away, and in fact, has only intensified after Hamas troops assailed Israel.
Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul means to severely limit the judiciary’s capacity to act in political decisions, which Netanyahu’s own Likud party members have held up as a wise decision. Because of the need for wartime action, those who side with Netanyahu believe that Hamas can more swiftly and effectively be brought to justice if the government has a free hand to maneuver in these situations. Netanyahu had commented about this before the war, so his prognostication of difficulty to respond to regional conflict was not entirely wrong. However, democracy should be prioritized over the war; Israel stands for democracy in the Middle East, and turning into a less liberal state in that respect is precisely what many countries in the Middle East want.
It seems very likely that Netanyahu will not be able to go through with the judicial overhaul, as he has opposition to the plan from multiple groups. First, there are threats of boycotts on military service if Netanyahu doesn’t discard the plan, which could prove very costly if its participants stay staunch to the idea of the boycott. Second, the high court struck down law 8-7, or the judicial overhaul, not allowing the legislation to stand. While Netanyahu can challenge this, it would cause even further strife and a constitutional crisis for the nation. Third, Biden has remarked, “I hope he walks away from it” regarding the plan to overhaul the judiciary.
Netanyahu claims that his government having more power means that Israel will more successfully be able to control regional threats, and that Palestine will no longer be a problem, Israel is united in peace in the Middle East, but not united in the deviation from democracy. Netanyahu needs to acknowledge that Israel is its strongest as a democracy.
Israel - War Against Hamas
The Israel - Hamas war has caught the eye of many in the final quarter of the year and sparked an incredible amount of controversy. This controversy has occurred outside of Israel, with many college presidents equivocating as to the effects of anti-semitism. The war, which was initiated by Hamas despite Israeli peace attempts, has been brutal and savage on the part of Hamas, who have slaughtered Israelis and their very own people. The attacks started on October 7th, and served as a complete and entire surprise to the Israeli defense system; so much so that they weren’t able to retaliate until hours after the attack. This equipped Hamas with the weapon of time, which they used to kill babies in their homes, slaughter hundreds of people at the convivial environment of a music festival, and to take hostages into Gaza.
Hamas were capable of the attack because of some outside intelligence, however, they chose not to nourish their own state of Gaza and instead built machines and networks of war and catastrophe; Hamas has produced a highly complex tunnel network that extended past the border and into Israeli territory. The war continues to proceed with Hamas; their clashes are still very much potent, however, the real front Israel is fighting on is the one in which they are being obliterated in; the fight against anti-semitism.
America has been a feeding ground for anti-semitism; no group has been more targeted, when it comes to hate crimes committed against, than the Jews. However, anti-semitism has never been perceived as an issue that was poignant, because it is not something that many find to be poignant. This is because both ends of the political spectrum are anti-semitic. The populist right shows it more openly, however, the populist left conceals it in a different way. The very far left has the strong conviction that history is written by race, and wants to rewrite that history and change racial bias. However, this is in itself, racist. Jews, generally, have done well in meritocracy, despite discrimination, which has caused the anti-meritocratic populist left to view the ethnic group with further disdain. In company with that, Jewish admission at Harvard has been halved over the span of a generation.
Of course, Claudine Gay’s testimony, along with the testimonies of Sally Kornbluth (MIT President) and Liz Magill (Former UPenn President) also represent the issues surrounding anti-semitism. At the testimony, New York Republican Elise Stefanik interrogated the presidents as to whether or not calling for the genocide of Jews was a violation of conduct; all presidents equivocated, and saying that mere bullying and harassment did not constitute that. Following the hearing, donors began pulling out their donations, putting schools under pressure to get the presidents of these schools to resign.
This year we have learned about the true magnitude of anti-semitism; it is incredibly powerful, and is rampant politically. There is not too much we can do for the time being to begin to erode at the leviathan creature that is ignorance, except to continue to support Israel, and to continue to endeavor to implement peace in the Middle East, and a two-state solution that benefits Israel and doesn’t put them at risk.
America
Far-Right American Politics and 2024 Election
2024 is an incredibly important year for the world, and one major factor to that is because of the 2024 election, which will be incredibly crucial in determining America’s relations with the world, depending on who is elected to the oval office. The 2024 election looks grim; two candidates will win in their parties, however, these two candidates are not necessarily the ones that the nation wants. Donald Trump and Joe Biden both have not had a great term in the president’s office, and a repeat of either of their former presidencies would certainly be bleak.
The Republican Debate has shown us that there is only really one candidate that is capable of challenging Donald Trump, the leading Republican in the poll massively. Five candidates are still in the nomination for the Republican party, those candidates being Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Chris Christie. Christie seems exceedingly unpopular within the Republican party, and Ramaswamy also has not approached the debate table with very much grace and dexterity; many of his statements will deter Republican voters. That leaves DeSantis, Haley, and Trump for the running. While Trump has an almost implacable 54% lead in the Republican party, he doesn’t attend the Republican debates, and any compelling arguments from the DeSantis or Haley could swing more moderate, or anti-Trump Republicans towards them, giving them a real change to dethrone Donald Trump’s almost unchallenged dominance in the Republican party. Any Republican hoping for a conservative, but more moderate and, of course, less of an elephant in the room, are definitely inclined to vote for DeSantis or Haley. While the future of the Republican nomination looks bleak, Nikki Haley would probably be the most ideal candidate to come from that party. Haley, very much, has traditional conservative values, America first, low-spending, secure borders, less government. However, also being an ambassador to the UN, she would be very strong internationally, tougher on Iran and China, unlike Biden, and more cooperative with allies, unlike Trump. Nikki Haley’s hypothetical nomination could mean positive things for America.
When it comes to the Democratic party, very few presidential candidates are going to be able to compete with BIden; the alternative nominees are hardly even well known by moderates. With larger names such as Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders no longer running for office, the democratic candidates of the election are extremely different from the ones of the previous election. Dean Philips and Marianne Williamson have a chance of winning the race, however, this seems like a slim shot; while Biden may have made some decisions that have not resonated well with the democratic party, and there are questions about his stamina and whether or not he will fall into desuetude, he is still the frontrunner of the Democratic party. However, people are becoming increasingly worried about his chances of winning the election. Biden’s policy around the border is one of his worst issues, and it is an issue that Trump is exceedingly popular for. Trump didn’t do a good job of handling the border; his numbers were almost as bad as Biden’s, and his sadistic methods of separating children from their parents were worthy of extreme castigation. Yet, Trump is becoming deified, and people believe things that are wrong. Many MAGA Republicans say that Biden did a horrible job with the economy, but inflation is going down, and Trump plunged the country in debt, too. Many far-right radicals call Biden a terrorist. Yet, Trump ordered a terrorist attack on the capitol on January 6th. People say Biden is not tough enough on Iran, but Donald Trump poses himself as a clown to allies in Europe. Many Republican voters only noticed what’s wrong with Biden; and are convinced that Trump will be able to fix the rubble and mess left behind by the Democrat president, cheering at his slogan of Make America Great Again.
The 2020 election let the country breathe a sigh of relief, as Trump did not win enough of the vote. Who could have anticipated that in 2024, Trump would run once more, and probably will win?
Europe
A New Party in Germany: The AfD
The AfD, also known as Alternative For Germany, is gaining momentum in Germany. A right-wing branch of government, it offers solutions to Germany’s immigration problem, which is becoming somewhat unsustainable, however, there are a lot of concerns around it being nationalist and susceptible to Neo-Nazi ideas. The party has been challenging the current government, and whether or not other parties have integrity when it comes to managing Germany. It means to change the way Germany works and thinks, which may not be a bad thing. Germany’s immigration problems have been attacked by the AfD, and the co-leader of the party, Alice Weidel, promises to establish a border quota and more control, something very important to many German voters. The symptoms of the AfD’s recent success can also be seen in the US, where voters have sided with the Republicans more because of the current border crisis, and the pledges of people such as Donald Trump to build a wall.
The AfD is a new party, and was founded only 11 years ago in 2013, by Bernd Lucke, Frauke Petry, and Konrad Adam, and during elections to the Bundestag, the AfD did not gain any representation in Parliament, being a new party and not yet popular. 3 years later, during the 2016 state elections, the party began to reach numbers in certain state Landtags in the vicinity of 15-20 percent. During federal elections a year later, AfD received its first Bundestag seats, with 94 of them. However, as the AfD’s policy evolved, many of their leaders broke off from the party, such as founder Frauke Petry. The 2021 federal election was similar. It has campaigned on ideas of anti-immigration, opposition to the EU, also known as Euroscepticism, and German nationalism. While subsets of the party have very fierce and racist ideologies, the party has not been rotted by the miasma of racism; it is still moderate to some extent.
The core tenet of AfD politics is to resolve the migrant crisis, to ensure that German taxpayers aren’t paying a hefty amount of money to support migrants and the welfare system. This is something that Olaf Scholz, the current chancellor, is attempting to resolve, but is not quite being resolute enough upon. Scholz is try to manage the crisis in a simpler way, by making it a bit more difficult to get welfare, increasing the amount German hosts would be paid to house refugees, but none of this has been concrete enough, or has reduced the immigration influx, which is the most important issue to 22% of German voters. Which might mean that 22% of voters will seek to vote for the AfD, or perhaps more.
One thing Scholz has attempted to do was to distribute asylum applications evenly, or at least reasonably. 60% of asylum applications from Syrians fleeing the civil war in the region were submitted to Germany; a testament to the landmark it is for refugees, and Germany not being able to shift part of the burden from its shoulders shows the reasonableness, in some ways, of euroscepticism, an ideology very much appreciated by the AfD, who have being haranguing the EU’s commitment to the migrant crisis. Germany, who loaned out 704 million to PIIGS for debt bailouts (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) during the European Debt Crisis, will now be dismayed to see that their fellow EU members are not bailing Germany out of its migrant catastrophe.
All that said, the future of the AfD depends on its leaders. If the party can evade the powerful pull of racism and hate, then it could become a very popular party in Germany; however, that all depends on its future leaders. Alice Weidel, the current co-leader of the party, could perhaps do that for the AfD. Her politics are nationalist, however, she is nationalist for the sake of preserving German and its thriving environment, not for the sake of supporting the pedigree of Nazism. The future of the AfD, and Germany’s future altogether, remains very much blurry.
2023 for Russia, and Vladimir Putin
2023 was not the most propitious year for Russia. It saw the war in Ukraine come to a stalemate, Russian troops dwindling in numbers, and arsenals becoming bare. Finland also joined NATO, evidence of the territorial development of NATO’s sphere of influence, and along with that, Russia fell into a abject terror for a moment, after Yevgeny Prigozhin, of the Wagner group, aberrated from Putin’s aims in the war and instead marched towards Mosa cow. He later perished in a plane crash. Russia’s draining economy and the war have sparked dissent in many of its citizens; even though there may not be a revolt now, if Russia feels the cold winds of war seep through its threadbare jacket, a revolt, or some sort of rebellion, would not be impossible. So, what to make of 2023?
Yevgeny Prigozhin was the leader of a paramilitary group, the Wagner Group. With Prigozhin, being frustrated at the Kremlin not granting any of his demands, marched inside Russia, and then ceased marching suddenly. A few weeks after that peculiar event, Nikolai Patrushev, one of Putin’s most important officers, ordered a bomb to be implanted in Prigozhin’s plane, which later caused it to crash, resulting in the death of every member on board. Nikolai Patrushev worked under the USSR as a spy, and later on, became one of Putin’s most important operators. When Putin became prime minister, Patrushev was appointed the successor of the FSB, which was Russia’s spy and espionage agency. Patrushev still remains a crucial operator for people. Patrushev was also integral in establishing a bill in 2006 allowing extrajudicial killings of Russian dissidents; Russians were no longer safe outside of their country, something true with the murder of Prigozhin. The first example of this was of Litvinenko, a former spy, who wrote some things about Putin, and was then deemed obstreperous, resulting in his tea being poisoned with a radioactive substance. Another example of the effect of this law was Alexei Navalny, after his race against Putin, a pathogenic agent was planted in his underwear, severely damaging his health.
Patrushev has been absolutely crucial in maintaining Putin’s regime. Russia’s security apparatus means that any sort of dissent is incredibly difficult; it is much more efficient than their security in the Soviet Union, with more technology and closer records, and along with that a stronger upgrade to the gulag archipelago that still somewhat exists. What the death of Prigozhin tells us is that Russia is not going to fall from dissent because of its robust security network, and its ability to kill extrajudicially, which has been enormously beneficial when it comes to the elimination of political opponents for Russia. Russia still has the gulag archipelago. That is a powerful weapon it wields.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has not been going well. While the war is at a stalemate, Russia is running out of weapons. Ukraine is not in a great position either; the EU, along with house Republicans, pose a threat to the supply of Ukraine’s aid, though they might not be willing to fund based on a conviction that Ukraine can win the war independently. However, NATO will come to heartily understand that this war is so incredibly crucial. The blockade against Russia has to begin. There cannot be another iron curtain; the effects of that in the Cold War were awful; the two countries would always fight war against one another through the means of proxies, often in civil conflicts. Millions of people died. The US needs to support Ukraine; it appears that Russia has one of two options; slow the war effort a bit and see how that works, or continue to devastate their internal mechanics. Russia’s economy seems to be fine; inflation is going down slightly, though still above the target of central banks, oil exports to countries still produce a large part of Russia’s GDP. However, the country has experienced a massive exodus, and so many professionals have gone off to fight at the front. Russia’s war effort is on its knees. It can’t sustain both its workforce and this war. And while Russian may not fall, completely keeling before the West, more effort and the country will grow very, very weak.
Houthis
A militant Yemeni group has recently caught the attention of nations worldwide, after it fired rockets near the Red Sea, the most crucial global trade passage in the world, which allows trade to occur between all of Afro-Eurasia. The Houthis have sought to disrupt that. Since the offenses against Israel in October, regional warfare tensions have increased the strain in the Middle East. Houthis are trying to block Israeli ships, but are also seizing the opportunity to agitate and infuriate global powers.
Houthis has been a militant group since around the 1990s. At that time, it was just a small rebellious faction against the civil government in Yemen. Since the 2000s, they have received support from Iran as a power that would challenge Saudi Arabia regionally; which they did, by responding swiftly to Saudi attacks imposed on them. Houthis are seeking attention as a militant group; they have gone unrecognized throughout the past decades, and now are burgeoning into a faction that has a more global influence and is significantly more difficult to eradicate.
Houthis, having toppled the government in Yemen, sees itself as an integral part of Middle Eastern peace, and the enforcer of Islamic whims. Their name means “Supporters of God”. Houthis is a militant group controlled by Iran, a Shia Muslim nation, with only around 5-10 percent of the population in the nation being of the Sunni sect of Islam. Houthis want to be part of the Iranian axis that combats Sunni Muslim, but along with that, Israel in the Middle East and other nations condemning their actions. The attacks on ships in the Red Sea have come from claims that they wish for the conditions of fighting in Gaza to be altered, whether that means increased humanitarian aid or a ceasefire. Houthis is depicting these attacks as necessary for the Palestinian cause - and many people are rallying around it.
The United States, along with Great Britain, has responded to the assault by targeting Houthis drones and ships in the Red Sea. While the two air forces and militaries have effectively disarmed certain Houthis vehicles, the detriment that the Houthis are causing is far from over. Provided that Netanyahu continues to wage war on Gaza with almost reckless abandon - and some progress - Houthis most likely will continue to fight the war in the Red Sea, seeing themselves as compatriots of Iran, and by association, compatriots of Hamas. If the war in Gaza continues to escalate, or Israel captures a leader such as Yahya Sinwar, the will of the Houthis could become much more resolute and unbreakable in the coming months.
Available in the Winter 2024 Print Edition