The Russo-Ukraine War: an Analysis on the Kremlin's Aggression and Ukrainian Resistance
On February 24th, 2022, the Russian military proceeded into Ukrainian territory. Russia and Ukraine had been fighting in Crimea and Russia backed separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Kremlin had been lining up troops on the Ukrainian border and shocked the world by trying to repossess the former Soviet breadbasket. The war has ravaged the Ukrainian homeland. Now, Ukraine has begun counterattacks in Kharkiv and Kherson. To propel this, Russia begins approaching a new tactic, using Iranian-made drones to target Ukrainian infrastructure. Russia is also planning to apply martial law to currently occupied territory. Multiple factors determine the course of the war, and something extremely significant will need to be done in order to quickly end it.
Russia’s inability to generate momentum
Russia has a larger population than Ukraine, and a titanic military. As a dictatorship, they are able to draft up a standing army potentially of ten million men. Yet, Russia has been unable to generate enough momentum to conquer all of Ukraine. The morale and determination of the Ukrainian people prevented the original attack which had generated momentum because of the overwhelmed Ukrainian military and the element of surprise. The Russian military attacked from the Crimea, from the East, and through Belarus. The Ukrainian forces were initially overwhelmed and told their people to fight the Russian intruders, who had now made their way to the outskirts of Kyiv. Civilians used Anti-Aircraft Missiles and Improvised Explosive Devices. The Russian troops were vastly unprepared for battle. They were told that there would be little recalcitrance by civilian forces. Without proper training, young Russian soldiers did not make for the fiercest opponents.
In the following months of the war, Ukrainian troops slowly pushed Russian forces back to the Kharkiv, Kherson, Zaphorizia, Donetsk, and Luhansk provinces. In August, Ukrainian forces had their eyes on attacking the city of Kherson, which was occupied by Russian troops. Ukrainian officers faced a difficult dilemma: face the retreating Russians, outmatched in arms and numbers, or wait and face an entrenched army with larger numbers and more munitions. Ukrainian officials found a middle ground. Ukrainian armies began a counterattack in the region of Kharkiv. They then proceeded to attack Kherson. In the North, Ukraine recently reached the city of Slovyansk.
Recently, Ukrainian advances haven’t been achieving headlines as much as Russian attempts to stifle them. Russia has been aggressively attempting to repel counterattacks, targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. They had a series of air strikes as they deplete their missile arsenal. Russia had previously barraged Ukrainian cities like Mariupol at the beginning of the war. Russia is most likely aiming to terrify civilians and, come the tide of winter, eliminate electricity and heat so as to limit the fighting ability of the Ukrainian army and resistance. Recently, Russia’s ally, Iran, has been providing them with drones to change the momentum in Ukraine.
Iranian ‘Kamikaze’ Drones
Iranian drones are becoming a serious factor in the war in Ukraine. These drones are provided with a target coded into their system, and then detonate upon arrival. These have been coined ‘kamikaze drones’ because of how they imitate the planes used to dive-bomb American battleships in World War II. Russia’s new weapons are terrorizing Ukrainian civilians, they have hit civilian buildings, killing some inhabitants. Ukrainian civilians have been protesting Russia’s newfound strategy. Given Russia’s display of enervation, it seems unlikely that Russia will stop using automated weapons in barrages.
Iran’s support of Russia has not gone unnoticed. While Iran denies supplying Russia with any weaponry, it is extremely evident that they are receiving money from Russia in exchange for Iran’s kamikaze drones. According to MSN.com, The European Union is imposing sanctions on Iran as punishment for their actions. Iran is already in a poor state financially, and this will contribute to the suffering of their people even more. Many Iranian civilians have gotten to the point where it is challenging to simply keep their families fed. Whether the sanctions will actually have a positive effect is to be seen.
The Iranian people are already protesting against the regime founded by Ruhollah Khomeini. Iran has been a theocracy since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Iran has been sanctioned before, and EU sanctions will most likely worsen conditions in Iran and Iran will still be able to supply Russia with ‘kamikaze drones’.
If Iran keeps supplying Russia with kamikaze, Russia will have a renewed stockpile of weapons that they can terrorize civilians and destroy infrastructure with. NATO has promised to provide anti-drone equipment along with aircraft defense systems. When these get situated, Ukraine might be able to better prevent drone attacks carried out by Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky has advised Ukrainians not to overwhelm the power grid so it can stay stable when barraged by Russian forces. If Russia is able to sever the power grid, then they could perhaps generate the momentum to win the war in the winter.
Putin to Apply Martial Law to Annexed Territory
Years after the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula which connects the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, Russia very recently annexed their occupied Ukrainian provinces. Ukraine is advancing toward these territories, which was a cause for Putin to rapidly annex them. Putin applied Russian martial law to these territories, effective as of October 19, 2022. Martial law means that the military will have direct control of everything in that area, meaning what they wish to do is the law.
This will give Russia the capacity to maintain detention centers and correctional facilities for the occupants of that area and the ability to terrorize civilians and threaten those supporting Ukrainian armies.
Many Ukrainian civilians in the area are friendly to the Russians. Some areas speak Russian as a native language instead of Ukrainian, which could mean that some areas might become obedient to the Kremlin. Russia has already begun to establish their own curriculum in Ukrainian schools, in hope of Russifying Ukraine. Russia might be hoping that they will be able to create environments preferring Russia to Ukrainian government, and that will prevent Ukraine from ever fully controlling that territory, which will give Russia a permanent foothold on the country.
Russia claims that they are actually De-Nazifying Ukraine, their reasoning for saying such an outlandish thing being that some Ukrainians sided with Nazi Germany during World War II instead of the Soviet Union. This doesn’t make a very strong point because President Zelenskyy is Jewish, and most people from that generation are deceased. Russia will most probably be successful in establishing civilian resistance against Ukraine in some areas, but the majority of Ukraine feels resentment towards the Russian government because of the treatment of civilians throughout the course of the war.
The Effect of the War on Russian and Ukrainian Civilians
The war has brought pain to both Russians and Ukrainians. Sanctions imposed by NATO have caused the devaluing of the Russian ruble, and the war in Ukraine has ravaged infrastructure and led to civilian deaths. In hope of generating more momentum in numbers, Russia is recruiting its men, preparing to send them off to war. This drafting is ubiquitous in Russia, and people are given draft notices in the streets.
Russia began announcing draft notices recently, calling up men under fifty to the army. Some Russian citizens have been staying away from public spaces and attempting to flee their draft notices. There seems to be fear of involvement in the war, which many people believe is wrong. Men have been fleeing to bordering countries, attempting to isolate themselves from the problem at hand. In particular, the Western-Asian nation of Kazakhstan, which is only 18 hours from Moscow, has reported more than 300,000 Russian refugees crossing its border since the Kremlin began drafting men for the army.
As of [October 19], one US Dollar is equivalent to sixty-one Russian Rubles. The currency has become more valuable than it was in the month of March, but it staggers every day. Russia’s economy is declining. One downwards trend that is exceptionally troubling is Russia’s population growth rate. The population is shrinking at a rate of -0.22% per year (cia.gov). If this trend continues, Russia will lack the ability to sustain an economy because of the labor shortage. Russian wages are also low, at about 243 USD a month. The Russian minimum wage is about 243USD a month (takeprofit.org). For comparison, an American, working from 9-5 on federal minimum wage five days a week would make at least 1160 USD a month. There are high dependency ratios for the youth and the elderly, which means that Russia has more population that could become a financial burden eventually. Russia is losing the capability to sustain its war efforts.
The war has had a negative effect on Ukrainian civilians. As the cold, harsh, winter nears, Ukrainian civilians are threatened because of the loss of heat and electricity in some areas due to the drones Russia is using. As of August 21, 2022, there had been 13,400 civilian casualties (ABC News). Russia has committed war crimes by targeting civilian areas. For example, Russia has conducted an air strike on a train station in Kramatorsk that was evacuating civilians (ABC News). The war is also leaving many civilians without access to basic needs (food, water, shelter, power, health care, etc.) The already problematic situation will most likely worsen when the winter sets in.
The Potential Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Not all nuclear weapons are hydrogen bombs that could destroy a city one thousand times the size of Hiroshima. There are smaller, less powerful nuclear weapons intended for battlefield use. America disassembled most of their nuclear weapons at the end of the Cold War. Russia, meanwhile, stored them away without disassembling.. Could these weapons come into play in the war? The seemingly outlandish possibility is actually very realistic.
Tactical nuclear weapons were created by the United States to counter the Russian armies. Russia had a standing army of around five million people, which wasn’t achievable for a non-totalitarian state to field. They were used as a deterrence, because these weapons could vaporize very important military installations. Putin stated that he would be willing to exert nuclear power on certain Russian-claimed territory that Ukrainian troops are presently advancing toward.
Putin could use these weapons as a technique to petrify NATO by setting off a nuclear weapon for the third time in history. This could deter NATO from supporting Ukraine or prompt the organization to begin more fiercely supplying Ukraine with arms. Other countries could possibly impose sanctions on Russia that hadn’t before.
Russia could also send a message to the Ukrainian army by detonating a nuclear weapon near a military installment, which could kill a few hundred people while also terrifying the Ukrainian population. This situation could easily backfire for Putin. If Putin were to use one of these weapons, the wind patterns could blow the radiation toward Russia itself.
No nuclear weapons have ever been detonated over Europe. This would entirely change the climate towards Russia internationally. Nations that had initially supported Putin could be exceedingly appalled, causing them to withdraw their support. The United States would most likely not detonate a bomb out of fear of escalation. They would be de-escalating the situation, while also indirectly punishing Russia for using a nuclear weapon. With the nuclear deadlock that has been in place ever since Russia’s development of the atomic bomb, it would be very hard to simulate to outcomes of escalating the situation.
A lot of Putin’s power with this weapon is his threats, which can repel countries from getting too aggressive. His threat diminishes if he uses one because then he loses his leverage over NATO. While it appears that this weapon is being used as a threat, Putin’s aspect of unpredictability makes it hard to tell.
What Might the Future of This War Entail?
Ukraine has regained territory around Kharkiv, while Russia possesses the land on the Eastern border with Russia. Ukraine controls most of the land in their country and all the major cities. Despite advances, this war might never cease. The Kremlin declared they would be in Ukraine until they regained their desired territory in Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson provinces. An attack on the Kerch Bridge, which is used as a supply line for Russia and is about 12 miles long, damaged their supply lines in South-Eastern Ukraine. Russia responded with fierce hostility. Russia has not yet been able to generate momentum to win the war in Ukraine and will struggle without the full operational capabilities of one of their critical bridges. Putin said the attack on the bridge was “an act of terrorism aimed at destroying Russia's critical civilian infrastructure (BBC News).” Of course, Russia is doing exactly the same in Ukraine.
Ukraine has made advances in Dudchany on the Dnieper River. Attacks from Mykolaiv and Dudchany could close off Russian occupied Kherson. In Donetsk, Ukraine took an important logistic center, Lyman, and is charging into the Luhansk province (BBC News). Will Russia use tactical nuclear weapons to scare the Ukrainian army away from the territory they have annexed? If so, then they could use the shock and awe technique to stage a counter-attack while the Ukrainian army is distracted. This could then incur sanctions that would further batter their economy. If Russia doesn’t find a way to create momentum, the war should eventually reach a stalemate around the border. Another important question to pose is, how long can Ukraine fight at the capacity they are now? Their infrastructure has been damaged from Russian air strikes. Russia, with a stronger military, could possibly wear the Ukrainian army down over time, and then eventually gain control over the whole country. Russia's military is stronger, and could eventually drill a hole in the hull of Ukraine’s defense. Another aspect to keep in mind is civilians. There have been civilian protests and civilians who have been fighting throughout the course of the war. Russia will need to be able to run a substantial military campaign while also cracking down on recalcitrance under territory which is to be applicable to martial law.
The war in Ukraine has been fierce and brought devastation all across that region. Both countries will wage military campaigns until they reach what is desired. The only way to really end the war is to do something drastic that will make the other back off. But the most important question that is to be asked is: What do we want the outcome of this to be?