US Politics: A Report on the 2022Midterm Elections
The results are in. On November 8, 2022 elections for the senate, the house of representatives, governor, and ballot measures were held.
All of these positions are crucial for the political situation of both the national and statewide government. The United States federal government was founded on a system of checks and balances between the three branches of government. The more the legislative branch sides with the agenda of Biden’s cabinet, the easier it is for his cabinet to pass the laws they want to. Also, given the divide between GOP and Democratic party members, the legislative branch will need to remain majority Democrat for Biden to be able to suggest and pass laws on his agenda.
The Senate and the House Elections
Graphic by Eric Lechpammer ‘23. Data taken from the Associated Press, accurate as of December 31, 2022.
The polls have closed across the country, after extensive campaigning for federal and statewide offices. The democratic party reached fifty senate seats, which gives them control of the Senate. The house of representatives has reached a very narrow Republican majority. Since there is often conflict and growing polarism in American politics, the balance of Democrats and Republicans has become even more critical in law-making matters.
Since President Biden’s agenda is more liberal, a Republican house will most likely be resistant towards laws that Biden supports and wishes to pass. While a Democratic Senate and Biden’s veto power will be able to fend off any laws far-right legislatures attempt to pass, there will be a stalemate between the left and right wings.
Thirty-five states had elections for one senate position each, with fourteen incumbent Democrats up for election and twenty-one incumbent Republicans up for election. So far, the Democrats have gained a seat in the Senate, and the Republicans have lost one. Still, America is very balanced in the legislative branch, and the Senate remains very close.
Georgia is having a run-off between Herschel Walker and Raphael Warnock, and neither candidate has reached half of the total vote - which is required for any candidate to be elected into office. Raphael Warnock currently leads with 49.4% of the vote, but the expected voter turn-out is at ninety-nine percent, so it seems improbable that his percentage should tick up to fifty.
The Republican party has gained the majority in the House of Representatives, the Republicans have reached the 218 control milestone, and now elections for a new Speaker of the House will commence on January 3, 2023. Since the Democrats no longer have control in the house, they can no longer represent the governing body. To conclude, the polarism which is becoming a major factor in American politics makes who holds the House and the Senate even more critical.
Governor Elections and Ballot Measures
Thirty-five gubernatorial seats were up for elections this year, and statewide elections were seldom surprising. States that were normally red remained so, and blue states followed. One thing that came as a surprise was Vermont turning Republican. New Hampshire is more frequently Republican than Democrat, but Vermont was still influenced by the democratic states of Massachusetts and New York. While Vermont has the smallest statewide population, the Republican candidate (Scott), won with 71% of the total vote. The New Hampshire Republican candidate - which has a similar population (Sununu) won with a comfortable but smaller major vote of 57%. While some results were surprising, the gubernatorial elections weren’t the most striking component.
Graphic by Lechpammer; Results of gubernatorial elections in MA, NH, and VT. Data taken from the Associated Press, accurate as of December 31, 2022.
In addition to gubernatorial, senate and house elections, there were also measures inserted on the ballot. Each one was a pending lawsuit that was to be voted on, and they would be enacted based on the opinion of the voting population.
One of the most controversial issues in American politics today is the overturning of Roe v Wade. There were six ballot measures related to the issue of abortion, and whether it was to be legalized or not. Most states voted to have fewer restrictions on abortion.
Albeit, Biden pardoned all federal marijuana criminals, states still have a right to vote on whether to legalize marijuana. Five states voted on the matter, and three voted no, showing America might be still caught up in the War on Drugs, bringing an increasing need to shift laws relating to drugs.
Another pressing issue, firearms, were voted on in two American states. Iowa voted in strong favor to add language to their state constitution on citizens having the right to bear arms. In contrast, Oregon voted to increase requirements to obtain a gun. The amendment will also prohibit the manufacturing of firearm magazines that can hold more than ten rounds. Whether this will dull shooting rates is to be seen.
Graphic by Lechpammer; Contentious ballot measure topics voted upon on a state-by-state basis in the 2022 midterm elections.
While the gubernatorial elections didn’t make huge headlines, the ballot measures are of massive importance, as they are the kickstart which will start movements for certain issues. If one amendment is voted on in a certain way, then it is possible that the momentum would start swinging said way.
Why Wasn’t There a Red Wave?
This midterm election, Republicans were expected to win a majority against the Democrats, mainly because Joe Biden has been a widely unpopular president. The Democrats were expected to lose both the Senate and the House. Democrats were also unpopular in general because of the issue of inflation. All Americans have a right to be concerned about the inflation crisis, which many believe the Democrats aren’t helping to stifle because of the money they are putting into people’s pockets. With those two things in the Republican party’s favor, then why didn’t they win?
Republicans lost largely because of them being backed by Donald Trump. Being associated with the former American president could have discouraged voters. Ron DeSantis, for example - who wasn’t Trump backed- was enormously successful in Florida, a swing state, gaining 59% of the vote. Another aspect that worked in the favor of the Democrats was the massive voter turnout from young voters. Younger people tend to be more liberal on average, and the more liberal side normally leans towards being democratic.
Graphic by Lechpammer; Result of gubernatorial elections in FL. Data taken from the Associated Press, accurate as of December 31, 2022.
Another very probable reason that things didn’t play out in the favor of the Republican party was the issue of abortion. Some Republicans have been opposed to abortion with few exceptions. The general population doesn’t agree with this, which could have fueled more votes towards the democratic side.
Conclusion
What does this all mean? Well, the most important thing to know is that although Democrats did far better than they were expected to, they weren’t able to hold on to the House of Representatives. This will make legislation more difficult for the big-spending president to pass.
Another issue to keep an eye on is Donald Trump’s 2024 election campaign. Donald Trump is currently being investigated by the DOJ for January 6 and the documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate. He possibly could have started his campaign to further confuse the investigation team trying to indict him for possible criminal actions. With this issue ongoing and the Republican party barely gaining control of the House, the future of American politics is blurry.